JUBA, April 21 — In a dramatic turn of events, South Sudan’s military announced that it had regained control of Nasir, a strategic town in Upper Nile state that had fallen in March to the White Army, an ethnic Nuer militia believed to have ties to opposition leader and First Vice President Riek Machar.
The recapture, accomplished without direct combat, is depicted by army officials as a swift and successful maneuver. However, behind the military victory lies a deeply concerning political landscape. The Ghosts of Civil War Resurface
Since the 2018 power-sharing agreement that nominally ended a brutal civil war, South Sudan has navigated a precarious peace. That balance now seems to be tilting dangerously. The arrest and house arrest of Machar earlier this month, allegedly for fomenting rebellion by supporting the White Army, has sent political shockwaves across the region and reignited fears of a return to ethnic warfare.
Observers warn that the move may backfire. “Detaining Machar without broad political consensus risks inflaming tensions further,” says one regional analyst. “We’ve seen this before; the spiral begins with one arrest and ends in mass displacement and bloodshed.”
A Town Retaken, but at What Cost?
Army spokesperson Lul Ruai Koang confirmed that Nasir was recaptured on Sunday with the support of air reconnaissance, which helped avoid an ambush in nearby Thuluc, a village subjected to heavy bombardment. According to the military, 17 civilians and fighters were killed in the operation.
On the opposing side, White Army spokesperson Honson Chuol James downplayed the loss, claiming it was merely a “tactical withdrawal.” Yet, his tone did little to mask the rising stakes in the conflict.
The White Army, notorious for its brutal and decentralized warfare during South Sudan’s 2013–2018 civil war, remains a volatile force. Although Machar’s SPLM-IO party denies backing the militia, reports from humanitarian groups and local observers suggest that coordination remains likely, especially given Machar’s power base in Nuer-dominated regions.
Regional Powers Enter the Arena
Alarmed by the shifting dynamics, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni recently visited Juba and deployed his army to support President Salva Kiir’s government. Uganda’s military chief and Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has claimed that 1,500 White Army fighters were neutralized in recent clashes.
Although difficult to independently verify, such claims reflect a growing internationalization of South Sudan’s crisis. With regional troops now active on South Sudanese soil, the risk of broader escalation looms. A Political Movement in Crisis
Meanwhile, cracks are emerging within Machar’s movement. A faction of the SPLM-IO has publicly announced Machar’s temporary replacement as party chairman, a move the group’s military wing has rejected, reaffirming loyalty to its detained leader.
This schism suggests internal disarray that could fracture the opposition or radicalize its most militant elements.
The Clock is Ticking
South Sudan is once again at a crossroads. The power struggle between Kiir and Machar is more than a personal feud; it is a battle with the potential to unravel an entire nation. With each side digging in and ethnic militias taking center stage once more, many fear that the thin veil of peace could soon be torn apart.
Unless cooler heads prevail and international diplomacy is swiftly employed, the world may soon witness a renewed civil war in Africa’s youngest country, one that no peace deal may be able to contain.
