Can a full-blown tariff war between the U.S. and Mexico be avoided, or is this a fragile moment for diplomacy? Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum insists there will be no “tariff war,” but are the underlying issues resolved?
Sheinbaum’s confident remarks came after Wednesday’s phone call with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. But what was agreed upon during their conversation? Was there a fundamental shift in policy or merely a political gesture to ease tensions?
Trump has framed the phone call as a breakthrough, claiming that Sheinbaum had agreed to curb unauthorized migration from Mexico to the U.S. But what does that agreement really entail? Sheinbaum herself posted a statement later that day, claiming, “Migrants and caravans are taken care of before they reach the border.” But is that a definitive pledge or simply a description of long-standing efforts?
For years, Mexican authorities have faced criticism over their handling of migrant caravans. These caravan groups of migrants traveling together to the U.S. border have been blocked by Mexican police or deported back toward Central America. So, is Sheinbaum’s statement merely reaffirming a policy already in place, or does it signal a new commitment to more aggressive action?
Meanwhile, the shadow of President Trump’s proposed tariffs looms large. Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, citing the need to stop illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. But how much of this is about actual policy, and how much is about leveraging trade for political gain?
While Sheinbaum remains optimistic that the situation can be avoided, many in Mexico are deeply concerned about the potential economic fallout. U.S. tariffs could disproportionately impact iconic Mexican industries, such as avocado farming, where small growers fear that higher prices could lead U.S. consumers to abandon their beloved guacamole.
What if the U.S. carries through with tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China? Estimates suggest that it could amount to $266 billion in tax collections, with consumers in the U.S. feeling the pinch in the form of higher prices. However, could such an economic hit lead to more strain on the already tense U.S.-Mexico relationship?
As Sheinbaum prepares for what many hope will be a peaceful resolution, will Mexico be able to navigate the complex demands of both halting illegal immigration and avoiding an economically damaging tariff war? And how much is at stake for everyday Mexicans who depend on trade with the U.S. for their livelihoods? The answers remain unclear, but one thing is sure: the diplomatic road ahead is far from smooth.
