Africa in 2024: A Year of Geopolitical Transformation and Political Uncertainty
Significant geopolitical shifts in Africa have marked the year 2024, signaling a turning point in the continent’s relationship with external powers and its approach to governance. As France gradually repositions its military presence in Africa, several African nations assert their sovereignty, often in direct opposition to former colonial powers. At the same time, political crises and internal tensions are challenging the stability of key African states, raising important questions about the continent’s future trajectory.
One of the most striking developments of 2024 has been the ongoing reorganization of French military operations across the Sahel and West Africa. In January 2025, the Portboué military base in Côte d’Ivoire, home to the French 43rd Marine Infantry Battalion (BIMA), will officially be handed over to Ivorian forces. This transition follows France’s military drawdown from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger countries that have either expelled French forces or reduced their cooperation in the face of rising anti-colonial sentiment. Côte d’Ivoire, a longstanding ally of France, will now take on greater responsibility for counterterrorism efforts in the region.
Similarly, Senegal has announced that all foreign military forces will leave the country by 2025, marking the end of decades of French military cooperation. This move is part of a broader trend across the Sahel, where nations such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have distanced themselves from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), rejecting sanctions and demanding greater control over their internal affairs.
In parallel, political upheavals have added to the growing uncertainty across the continent. Chad’s recent decision to suspend its defense agreements with France and the retrocession of the Fa military base to Chadian authorities in December highlight the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel. Chad’s move to end its military cooperation with France follows years of escalating tensions between the two nations and adds to a wider trend of African nations asserting greater independence in their defense and foreign policies.
As France’s influence wanes in the region, new international alliances are taking shape. The growing partnership between Russia and several African countries has garnered significant attention, particularly with the establishment of new defense and economic agreements. While these new partnerships present opportunities for Africa, they also raise concerns about the long-term implications for regional security and governance.
The most notable internal political tensions in 2024 are centered in Côte d’Ivoire, where President Alassane Ouattara’s potential bid for a fourth term has sparked heated debate. Although the Ivorian Constitution limits presidents to two terms, Ouattara, who has been in power since 2011, is widely considered by his supporters to be the “natural candidate” for continued leadership. His silence on whether he will run again in the upcoming election has led to speculation that he intends to circumvent constitutional limits, raising fears of instability and political violence, as was witnessed during the 2020 election.
As Côte d’Ivoire prepares for its 2025 presidential elections, the political landscape remains deeply divided. The ruling party, the RHDP (Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix), has already begun mobilizing support for Ouattara’s potential candidacy, despite concerns over electoral fraud and manipulation. Opposition parties, including the PDCI (Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire), are fragmented, with several factions opposing Ouattara’s continued rule. Accusations of corruption within the electoral process have further complicated the situation, with claims that as much as 30% of the voter registry is compromised. These issues have cast a shadow over the upcoming election, with many fearing a repeat of the violence that plagued the 2020 elections.
Elsewhere on the continent, countries like Mozambique have faced their own internal challenges, with violent protests erupting following contested elections in October. The crackdown on dissent has left dozens dead and underscored the fragile nature of democratic governance in certain African states. Despite these challenges, African nations are increasingly determined to forge their own path toward political stability and economic growth, often at odds with external pressures and interventions.
2024 has thus been a year of profound transformation for Africa. The continent is navigating a complex web of geopolitical and domestic changes, with many nations seeking to redefine their relationships with former colonial powers and international actors. While this transition period offers new opportunities for economic and political development, it also presents significant risks. The future of African domestic and international governance will depend on how well leaders can navigate the competing demands of sovereignty, security, and economic growth while addressing the rising political tensions and social unrest that threaten to undermine stability.
In the coming year, all eyes will be on Côte d’Ivoire, where the outcome of the 2025 presidential election could have profound implications for the country’s political future and the broader region. As the continent confronts these challenges, it is clear that Africa’s geopolitical landscape is evolving. Countries are seeking to assert greater control over their destinies while balancing the pressures of internal reform and external influence.
