Donald Trump’s election victory has sent shockwaves through Africa, stirring optimism and anxiety. While some leaders celebrate a potential thaw in strained relations, others fear a dramatic shift in US foreign policy could leave African nations facing aid cuts, stalled trade agreements, and new geopolitical pressures.
Uganda’s parliamentary speaker, Anitah Among, expressed relief, hoping that Trump’s re-election would finally lift the harsh sanctions imposed on her country. However, that optimism may be short-lived. Analysts warn that Trump’s approach to Africa is transactional, and his re-election may mean fewer multilateral partnerships, less aid, and a more confrontational stance on global issues like climate change and trade.
Transactional Diplomacy, Human Rights at Risk
While African leaders from Egypt to South Africa rushed to congratulate Trump after his win, experts caution that the new US president will likely prioritize what he perceives as America’s strategic interests, particularly in countering China’s growing influence in Africa. “Trump is a dealmaker,” says Christopher Isike, a professor of African studies at the University of Pretoria. “He focuses on what he can get in return, and it’s unlikely he’ll let human rights or democracy shape his policy in Africa.”
This approach could benefit long-standing authoritarian allies like Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame. Both have faced US criticism over human rights abuses but remain influential regional partners. Conversely, countries like South Africa, which have been critical of US foreign policy, may face pressure to align with Trump’s geopolitical vision, particularly concerning Russia and China.
Threat to Trade and Economic Ties
One of the most immediate concerns for African nations is the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade agreement allowing African countries to export goods to the US without facing tariffs. With the agreement set to expire in 2025, experts fear that Trump’s aversion to multilateral deals could lead to its demise, replacing it with a series of bilateral agreements that favor the US.
“Trump will use every tool available to leverage his position,” says Isike. “He’ll likely push for trade deals that benefit the US first and foremost, using the threat of aid cuts or trade barriers to force African governments into submission.”
Already, Trump’s more isolationist foreign policy could lead to cuts in US foreign aid, including the PEPFAR initiative, which provides billions in funding for HIV/AIDS programs across Africa. Other areas, such as vaccine distribution, reproductive health, and climate initiatives, could also face drastic reductions, especially if Trump continues withdrawing from international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord.
Climate and Geopolitical Fallout
Trump’s climate skepticism could also have serious implications for Africa, a continent already struggling with climate change. Given his history of rejecting global climate frameworks, his return to office could prevent Africa from receiving critical international climate funding, stalling projects to combat drought, food insecurity, and rising sea levels. Political sociologist Patrick Bond warns that Trump’s policies will be catastrophic for Africa. The continent will bear the brunt of his climate denialism, which would only worsen existing environmental challenges.”
Geopolitically, Trump’s strained relationships with multilateral institutions like the United Nations may also impact Africa’s long-held ambition for permanent seats on the UN Security Council. Given his disdain for global institutions, experts predict that Trump’s presidency could stymie these efforts, further sidelining Africa in global decision-making.
The Silver Lining: A Shift in Alliances
Despite these challenges, there’s a potential silver lining for Africa. As Trump shifts focus to transactional diplomacy, African nations may increasingly look for alternative partners in Asia and the Middle East, where countries like China and Saudi Arabia invest heavily in infrastructure, trade, and development projects. Analysts suggest that Trump’s withdrawal from Africa could accelerate the continent’s pivot away from the US, forging stronger ties with regions less concerned with ideological differences.
“If Africa wants to continue to rely on aid from the US, then Trump’s victory is a catastrophe,” says Isike. “But it could also be an opportunity for Africa to focus on self-reliance, regional cooperation, and diversifying its alliances. If anything, it could prompt the continent to build stronger ties within Africa and with other emerging economies like China and India.”
In the wake of Trump’s re-election, Africa stands at a crossroads. While some leaders may welcome the prospect of fewer sanctions and more flexibility, others face the harsh reality of a US administration that may treat the continent as a geopolitical pawn in its larger power struggle with China and the rest of the world. The coming years will likely see African nations recalibrate their strategies, potentially reshaping their foreign relations in ways that could lead to new opportunities and significant challenges.
