WHEN THE IVORIAN OPPOSITION GOES ON ELECTORAL STRIKE: THE HIGH-RISK GAMBLE AGAINST THE OUATTARA REGIME

Franck Gutenberg; USAFRICA NEWS
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Amid growing suspicions of bias and ongoing demands for transparency, Côte d’Ivoire’s opposition groups GPS (led by Guillaume Soro) and PPA-CI (founded by former President Laurent Gbagbo) have announced their boycott of the legislative elections. This strategic move stems from a broader challenge to the country’s electoral system, but it also raises important questions about its long-term effects and potential risks.

Why the Boycott?

Below is an overview of the key reasons advanced by both parties:

  1. Dissatisfaction with the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and the Voter Register

The official GPS declaration for the March 2021 legislative elections cited demands for “the release of all political and military prisoners, the return of all political exiles, the rebalancing of the CEI, and an audit of the voter register.”
According to Freedom House, the Ivorian electoral framework remains structurally weak: “The electoral commission continues to be influenced by the ruling government, and the voter register contains major deficiencies.”
By refusing to take part, GPS sought to underscore that “fair-play conditions” for a genuine contest were not in place.

  1. Contesting the Legitimacy of the Ruling Power

Although President Alassane Ouattara’s third term was legally confirmed after the 2016 revision, it faced widespread opposition. The boycott is a strong act of protest: “The legislative elections cannot legitimize a regime we deem born of a constitutional deviation,” summarized GPS in its statement. For the PPA-CI, founded in 2021, non-participation shows a bold stance against what it calls the exclusion of key opposition figures from the race.

  1. A Strategy to Create Political Leverage

By withdrawing from the polls, these parties aim to expose systemic bias, attract international attention, and galvanize their base around an “anti-system” message. Boycott becomes a tool of pressure domestically and beyond.

The Downsides of the Boycott

A bold gamble, but one with serious risks:

  1. Loss of Institutional Representation

By abstaining from voting, GPS and PPA-CI lose parliamentary seats and the official channels of debate that come with them, weakening their influence and visibility within the Assembly.

  1. Reduced Legitimacy Among Voters

Non-participation can be viewed as a form of political disengagement or passivity, potentially alienating supporters who expect active opposition. The risk of political marginalization is therefore a real concern.

  1. Reinforcement of One-Party Control

The boycott effectively paves the way for the ruling Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix (RHDP) to win uncontested. This could solidify its dominance and weaken democratic checks and balances, turning a protest gesture into a strategic mistake.

  1. Fragmentation of the Opposition

A unilateral withdrawal risks splitting the opposition, as some parties may still participate and win seats, while others abstain. This weakens the goal of a unified front and reduces collective bargaining power.

Interim Assessment and Implications for Côte d’Ivoire

GPS officially announced its decision not to participate in the 2021 legislative elections on January 16, 2021, while PPA-CI recently confirmed its boycott of the 2025 elections.
Voter turnout in 2021 was about 37.9 percent, a sharp decline from historical averages.

For Côte d’Ivoire, such a pattern of electoral boycotts raises serious democratic concerns:

  • It diminishes the representativeness of elected institutions and undermines the very idea of “democratic normalcy.”
  • It raises a difficult question: when is the opposition more effective inside or outside the ballot box?
  • It jeopardizes national unity in a country still dealing with post-electoral crises and a fragile political climate.

A Double-Edged Strategy

The boycott of the legislative elections by GPS and PPA-CI is a symbolic yet risky move that highlights the deep mistrust surrounding Côte d’Ivoire’s electoral system. It sends a clear message both at home and abroad: the opposition refuses to “occupy space” rather than change it.

However, this decision has significant costs, such as the loss of institutional influence, reduced power, and the risk of marginalization.
History shows that self-exclusion from elections rarely comes without danger.

For USAFRICA NEWS, this evolving situation requires close monitoring as we watch how boycotting parties yield ground to their rivals and assess whether their strategy has a greater impact inside or outside the ballot box.

Ultimately, the gamble is risky: criticizing a system or stepping away from it, yet absence in politics rarely guarantees change.